Home sales: Best year since '07 - Jan. 22, 2013

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Steady December home sales capped the best year for the U.S. real estate market in five years, according to an industry trade group report Tuesday.

The National Association of Realtors said that December sales of previously-owned homes came in just slightly below November's sales pace, but up 12.8% from a year ago. That brought full-year sales to 4.65 million, up 9% from 2011 and the best year for home sales since 2007, when there were 5 million homes sold just before the start of the recession.

Sales are being helped by a combination of strong market fundamentals -- near record low mortgage rates, lower unemployment and a rebound in home prices, all of which are bringing in buyers into the market who had been waiting for it to hit bottom. The mortgage rates and years of depressed home prices have also combined to create the most affordable housing market on record, according to the Realtors group.

And the Realtors are predicting strong sales should continue into 2013 and beyond. It has a forecast for 5.1 million existing home sales this year, and 5.4 million next year.

Related: Big luxury home sales, big tax savings

The improved demand for homes in December led to the inventory of homes for sale to fall to 1.82 million homes on the market, the lowest supply since January 2001. One factor in tightening supplies is a drop in foreclosures and other distressed home sales, which made up only 24% of home sales in December compared to 32% a year ago. The tighter supply, and the drop in distressed sales, have helped to lift home prices so that the median sales price for the year rose to $176,600, up 6.3% from 2011. That's the biggest gain in prices in since the bubble year of 2005.

The rebound in the market for previously-owned homes is also showing up in the market for new homes, where sales rebounded to their highest levels since 2009, while housing starts reached the highest level since 2008. To top of page

First Published: January 22, 2013: 10:27 AM ET

It is certainly no surprise to me but always good to see articles like this.

Bet on California Home Price Appreciation | LinkedIn

The naysayers are wrong. California naysayers like to point out that:

  • California’s state and local governments are among the most financially distressed in the country
  • California’s regulatory environment pushes more and more companies out every year
  • California’s income taxes, already insanely high, just went up significantly with the passage of Proposition 30, and will cause more people to leave

While the three bullets above are all very valid points, California’s housing market is much stronger than most think. California has the biggest demand/supply imbalance in the country:

  • Demand is strong and new home supply is low: California is adding more than four jobs for every home built (see chart below)
  • There are very few homes for sale (see second chart below)
  • Monthly housing costs as a percentage of income are near the lowest they have been in 30+ years

Other naysayers, many of whom comment on my posts on linkedin, point out that:

  • Prices will not go up due to artificially low mortgage rates
  • Inventory will spike due to foreclosures, investors who will dump the homes they bought, and real homeowners finally putting their homes on the market
  • The U.S. balance sheet is a calamitous disaster waiting to happen

I find these last arguments to be somewhat ludicrous.

  • If rates are going to go up, why not lock in a 30 year fixed rate mortgage now if you have the income and intend to live in one area for a long time?
  • If rates go up due to high inflation, won’t the replacement cost of building a home go up too, pushing the nominal cost of real estate higher (see home prices in the early 1980s as an example)?
  • Ask anyone involved in the foreclosure process if they think distressed sales will spike, driving prices down. They don’t have the infrastructure to make this happen, even if they were mandated to do it.
  • If investors and homeowners are putting their homes on the market to profit from their investments, won’t prices be higher? If they are selling their homes because they think home prices are heading down from here, we will certainly have bigger problems than housing!
  • If a U.S. financial crisis occurs (and I believe it will, but I cannot predict when), wouldn’t you want to own real estate (assuming you think you will be able to keep your job and pay your mortgage).

In summary, what happens when demand is strong, supply is low and affordability is the best in decades? Listen to the naysayers and you will miss out on one of the greatest investment opportunities in your lifetime.

P.S. to the naysayers: Please don’t respond without giving your full name and offering advice on what qualified homeowners should do instead. I know that everyone is not qualified to be a homeowner, and many prefer the flexibility of not having a mortgage. They are the minority.

Good article by John Burns!

Atlas Vans' Moving Map - Business Insider

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This Chart depicts the movement of people into and out of the various states in the US as well as Canadian Provinces. I was actually happy to see that CA is flat instead of more moves out of the state.

Study offers a deep dive into ways homebuyers use the Web | Inman News

Study offers a deep dive into ways homebuyers use the Web

Google: Real estate-related searches have more than doubled in last 4 years

By Inman News, Tuesday, January 8, 2013.

Inman News®

http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=64594294" target="_blank">Internet search</a> image via Shutterstock." width="225" />Internet search image via Shutterstock.

Consumers' online experiences are increasingly influencing their homebuying activity offline, according to a joint study from search giant Google and the National Association of Realtors.

The report, "The Digital House Hunt: Consumer and Market Trends in Real Estate," includes custom research from NAR's 2012 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers as well as internal Google data and research conducted by Google and third-party marketing firm Compete.

Real estate-related searches on Google.com rose 253 percent over the past four years and 22 percent on annual basis in the third quarter, according to internal Google data. Of the latter, about one-fifth of such searches occurred on mobile devices -- a 120 percent year-over-year increase.

Nine out of 10 house hunters searched online during the homebuying process with 52 percent choosing that as their first step in the process, the report said. Those who used search engines were 9 percent more likely to take an action on a real estate brand website than those who did not search and those who searched performed an average of 11 searches prior to taking an action, the report said.

Google and Compete tracked the behavior of users who completed a specific desired "conversion activity" at a real estate website during second-quarter 2011 and second-quarter 2012.

These activities included registering to buy or sell a home, sharing a listing, submitting a lead form, using a mortgage calculator, viewing a contact phone number, or viewing directions to a home or agent office. Google and Compete backtracked 90 days from the time a user completed one of these actions to uncover behavior patterns that lead to the activity.

Article continues below

In 2011, the companies tracked behavior for home shoppers in general. In 2012, they tracked new-home shoppers specifically. The real estate websites considered included brokerage websites and listing aggregators.

The report's findings included insights on how house hunters are using online search, mobile devices, and video more and more in their homebuying endeavors.

"Increasingly, online technologies are driving offline behaviors, and homebuying is no exception," said Patrick Grandinetti, Google's head of real estate, in a statement.

"With 90 percent of homebuyers searching online during their homebuying process, the real estate industry is smart to target these people where they look for and consume information -- for example, through paid search, relevant websites, video environments, and mobile applications."

Nearly 7 out of 10 home shoppers who took action on a real estate brand website began their research with a local term on a search engine, i.e., "Houston homes for sale," the report said, and 52 percent of those who took action on a real estate brand site came directly from a local search on a search engine.

New-home shoppers were most likely to use a mobile search engine at the beginning of their search process, use general news websites and maps in the middle, and use mobile applications throughout the process.

New-home shoppers were most likely to read general home information, get directions to visit a home, and compare prices on a mobile device. Nearly 3 in 10 used a mobile device to call a brokerage while about 2 in 10 used a mobile device to locate a listing agent or contact a brokerage other than by calling. Just over one-fifth of such shoppers used mobile devices to read online reviews, and 16 percent watched a video about a home.

The role of tablets specifically has increased considerably. Searches related to real estate brokers on tablets grew 300 percent year over year in the third quarter, while searches related to homebuilders on tablets rose 362 percent. New-home buyers are particularly interested in virtual tours and videos showcasing properties and communities, the report said.

The study noted some mobile behaviors not specific to house hunting among those in the market for a new home: 36 percent used a mobile device while watching TV either "usually" or "always;" and 77 percent used their mobile devices at home, while between 26 and 31 percent used their mobile devices at work, waiting in line, at a restaurant, or at other peoples' homes.

Buyers in general searched for homes an average of three weeks before contacting an agent. However, there was a great deal of variety among buyers -- 40 percent of new-home buyers did not contact an agent for 120 days after they start researching, while nearly a quarter contacted an agent that same day.


Source: Google & Compete New Home Shopper Survey, 2012 

Nearly 8 in 10 new-home buyers visited more than three sites before taking action on a real estate site.

Among homebuyers in general who took action, 31 percent were aged 25-34 in second-quarter 2011, the biggest share of any age group.

Video represents a crucial marketing opportunity for real estate professionals because homebuyers-at-large use video for a variety of research needs, the report said. Homebuyers who used video for home shopping were most likely to use it to find out more about a specific community, tour the inside of a home, or obtain general information.


Source: Google & Compete Home Shopper Survey, 2011 

YouTube was the most popular destination for those who used video to house hunt, followed by brokerage websites. Interestingly, 37 percent of respondents to the 2011 survey used Google video, which means that before Google changed its search interface, the respondents searched on Google.com and selected "video" for the result type. The results returned were from YouTube, which is owned by Google. Consumer-generated online reviews and aggregator listing websites also got traffic from at least a third of house hunters who used video to search for homes.


Source: Google & Compete Home Shopper Survey, 2011  

YouTube searches related to agents, including finding an agent, grew 46 percent on an annual basis in the third quarter. The site had nearly a quarter of a million agent-related videos, about half of which focus on buying a home, that quarter. There were also a rising number of homebuying searches, including those for renting an apartment, renting vs. buying, the homebuying process, and renting a house. Open house-related searches have risen 23 percent year over year, the report said.

The study found some generational differences in the online behaviors of buyers. Among first-time buyers, 52 percent first turned to the Internet for homebuying information, including searching for properties and researching the homebuying process, compared with 39 percent of seniors. Only 47 percent of first-timers used the Internet specifically to search for a home, however, compared with 75 percent of senior homebuyers. Nearly 8 in 10 (77 percent) first-timer buyers drove by a home they first viewed online, the report said.

First-time-buyer-related searches on Google.com rose 5 percent year over year in the third quarter, the report said. Frequently searched terms included "FHA loan," "home loan," "home buyer assistance," and "home mortgage calculator." The five states with the biggest number of such searches were Louisiana, South Dakota, Delaware, Mississippi and Wyoming.

For senior-related housing searches, the top states were Oregon, Washington, North Carolina, Virginia and Nebraska. Senior homebuyers valued neighborhood information and interactive maps when searching for homes online, the report said, and tended to drive by or walk through homes they've viewed online as well as find an agent they used to search for or buy a home after looking online.

Frequent retirement home-related searches in the third quarter included "retirement calculator," "best retirement communities," "retirement homes houston," and "retirement homes denver."

Buyers who purchased a foreclosed home with the help of a real estate agent were more likely to use the Internet in their search, the report said. Such buyers tended to value website photos and detailed information about for-sale properties. Foreclosure-related searches increased 180 percent on mobile devices and 7 percent on desktops on an annual basis in the third quarter. The top states for foreclosure-related searched were Florida, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona and Illinois.

One-fifth of vacation-home buyers used search engines to find their second home. The top states for vacation home-related searches were Florida, South Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina and Ohio.

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Well we have certainly known this for quite some time!

Top 10 Turnaround Housing Markets Of '12 - Business Insider

The 10 American Housing Markets That Made Tremendous Turnarounds In 2012

Mamta Badkar | Jan. 4, 2013, 6:00 AM | 99,053 | 14

The U.S. housing market turned the corner in 2012. The latest home price report from Trulia says home prices were up 5.1 percent year-over-year nationally.

And the pace of increases has also picked up in the year. With home prices up 0.8 percent quarter-over-quarter in Q1, and up 2.3 percent in Q4.

We drew on Trulia's latest report to highlight the top "turnaround markets" of 2012, i.e. markets with the biggest increase in home prices between December 2011 and December 2012.

Note: The report looks at the 100 largest metros in the U.S. All price and rent changes are on a year-over-year basis.


Tacoma, Washington

Difference between 2011-2012:
+17.7 percent

Change in price December 2012:
+4.0 percent

Change in price December 2011:
-13.7 percent

Median price for Q4 2012:
$209,950

Source: Trulia

Fresno, California

Fresno, California

AP

Difference between 2011-2012:
+17.7 percent

Change in price December 2012:
+9.0 percent

Change in price December 2011:
-8.7 percent

Median price for Q4 2012:
$184,000

Source: Trulia

Sacramento, California

Sacramento, California

AP Images

Difference between 2011-2012:
+17.9 percent

Change in price December 2012:
+9.5 percent

Change in price December 2011:
-8.5 percent

Median price for Q4 2012:
$249,900

Source: Trulia

Atlanta, Georgia

Difference between 2011-2012:
+18.9 percent

Change in price December 2012:
+9.0 percent

Change in price December 2011:
-9.9 percent

Median price for Q4 2012:
$159,000

Source: Trulia

Salt Lake City, Utah

Difference between 2011-2012:
+20.5 percent

Change in price December 2012:
+14.0 percent

Change in price December 2011:
-6.5 percent

Median price for Q4 2012:
$234,900

Source: Trulia

San Jose, California

Difference between 2011-2012:
+20.8 percent

Change in price December 2012:
+16.1 percent

Change in price December 2011:
-4.7 percent

Median price for Q4 2012:
$589,950

Source: Trulia

Oakland, California

Difference between 2011-2012:
+21.0 percent

Change in price December 2012:
+12.7 percent

Change in price December 2011:
-8.4 percent

Median price for Q4 2012:
$384,750

Source: Trulia

Phoenix, Arizona

Difference between 2011-2012:
+21.8 percent

Change in price December 2012:
+26.0 percent

Change in price December 2011:
+4.2 percent

Median price for Q4 2012:
$189,000

Source: Trulia

Seattle, Washington

Difference between 2011-2012:
+24.0 percent

Change in price December 2012:
+10.2 percent

Change in price December 2011:
-13.8 percent

Median price for Q4 2012:
$299,950

Source: Trulia

Las Vegas, Nevada

Difference between 2011-2012:
+27.5 percent

Change in price December 2012:
+16.3 percent

Change in price December 2011:
-11.2 percent

Median price for Q4 2012:
$147,000

Source: Trulia

Now see which states are still struggling with a foreclosure problem...

Tags: Housing, Features | Get Alerts for these topics »

It's good to know that a few on this list are located in California!

Real Estate Provisions in “Fiscal Cliff” Bill

On Jan. 1 both the Senate and House passed H.R. 8 legislation to avert the “fiscal cliff.” The bill was signed into law by President Barack Obama on Jan. 2.

Below is a summary of real estate related provisions in the bill:

Real Estate Tax Extenders

  • Mortgage Cancellation Relief is extended for one year to Jan. 1, 2014
  • Deduction for Mortgage Insurance Premiums for filers making below $110,000 is extended through 2013 and made retroactive to cover 2012
  • 15-year straight-line cost recovery for qualified leasehold improvements on commercial properties is extended through 2013 and made retroactive to cover 2012
  • 10 percent tax credit (up to $500) for homeowners for energy improvements to existing homes is extended through 2013 and made retroactive to cover 2012

Permanent Repeal of Pease Limitations for 99% of Taxpayers

Under the agreement so called “Pease Limitations” that reduce the value of itemized deductions are permanently repealed for most taxpayers but will be reinstituted for high income filers.  These limitations will only apply to individuals earning more than $250,000 and joint filers earning above $300,000.  These thresholds have been increased and are indexed for inflation and will rise over time.  Under the formula, the amount of adjusted gross income above the threshold is multiplied by three percent.  That amount is then used to reduce the total value of the filer’s itemized deductions.  The total amount of reduction cannot exceed 80 percent of the filer’s itemized deductions.

These limits were first enacted in 1990 (named for the Ohio Congressman Don Pease who came up with the idea) and continued throughout the Clinton years.  They were gradually phased out as a result of the 2001 tax cuts and were completely eliminated in 2010-2012.  Had we gone over the fiscal cliff, Pease limitations would have been reinstituted on all filers starting at $174,450 of adjusted gross income. 

Capital Gains

Capital Gains rate stays at 15 percent for those in the top rate of $400,000 (individual) and $450,000 (joint) return.  After that, any gains above those amounts will be taxed at 20 percent.  The $250,000/$500,000 exclusion for sale of principal residence remains in place.

Estate Tax

The first $5 million dollars in individual estates and $10 million for family estates are now exempted from the estate tax.  After that the rate will be 40 percent, up from 35 percent.  The exemption amounts are indexed for inflation.

Good information to know. I will need to study up myself!